According to the latest FAO, forecasts, rice production in 2024/25 is expected to increase compared to the September 2024 estimates, mainly due to improved production prospects in India, overshadowing the current downturn in many other countries, notably Myanmar. Global production is projected to reach 539.2 million tonnes, up from 534.4 million tonnes in 2023/2024.
Rice consumption in 2024/25 is expected to rise, reaching its highest level, driven by probable increases in both food and non-food uses. Rice trade is projected to decline further in 2024 for the second consecutive year. However, it could rebound by 4.1% in 2025, thanks to the recovery of imports from the Middle East and Africa. Rice stocks in 2024/25 have increased compared to the September 2024 forecasts. Price adjustments upward for India have offset some downward price adjustments in many other countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan.
India has officially lifted the ban on exporting non-basmati white rice.
This decision suddenly increases the supply of rice on the international market. Thailand and Vietnam had been the main beneficiaries of this ban during the 2023/2024 season and will need to reduce their export prices to remain competitive, particularly in major markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia.
The Indian government has set a minimum export price of USD 490/tonne for non-basmati white rice and reduced the export tax on white rice to 0%, amid rising stocks in India and farmers preparing for the new harvest. This decision will help increase the global supply of rice and ease pressure on global prices after two years of record increases.