March (253) Moderate Falls in World Rice Prices

In March, world rice prices fell moderately, giving up an average of 3% versus 7% in the previous month. Prices are at their lowest level since September 2022. More significant declines were recorded in Thailand, India and Pakistan. In contrast, the decline was more moderate in Vietnam, even showing some firmness in the second half of the month. In the United States, prices fell by 4.5% due to increased supply. By contrast, in Mercosur countries, prices fell more sharply, between 6% and 10%, according the origin, due to the arrival of new crops. World demand remains limited, while export supply remains abundant and should increase in the coming months. As a result, importers are cautious and are delaying their purchases in anticipation of further price falls. The end of bans export on Indian broken rice, announced in early March, should also impact prices of low-quality rice. The end of the restrictive policy marks India’s major return to the world market. Its exports should rise sharply, surpassing the all-time record of 2022, to 23 Mt, or nearly 40% of world rice trade. Currently, India is concentrating mainly on African markets. The outlook for world trade in 2025 indicates a further increase to 60 Mt from 59.4 Mt in 2024. In March, the OSIRIZ/InfoArroz index (IPO) fell another 6.7 points to 199.5 points (base 100=January 2000), against 206.3 points in February. In early April, the IPO index was still declining, standing at 195 points.