April 2024 (242) – World rice prices fell further

In April, world rice prices weakened by a further 3% due to a slowdown in global demand and the end of the off-season harvest arriving on the market. Declines were recorded on all world markets, including in the Western Hemisphere. However, more significant falls were recorded in Thailand, due in part to the weakening of the bath against the dollar. In Pakistan, prices weakened due to a sluggish external market. By contrast, declines were less pronounced in Vietnam and India, by around 1%, thanks to sustained demand, particularly from Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global demand began to pick up again at the end of April, and prices showed a clear upward trend at the beginning of May, also due to the appreciation of Asian currencies against the dollar. This trend continued in mid-May due to higher import demand, while supply had not yet increased. However, this sudden rise is unlikely to continue in the coming weeks, as the outlook for world production has been revised upwards and world trade is still expected to decline, by 3% compared with 2023. Finally, the market is expecting India’s back to the world market, but this is not likely to be fully effective before the second half of 2024.