June 2024 (244) Towards a Decrease in World Rice Prices

In June, world rice prices saw a slight increase of 0.5%, but since mid-June, they have tended to decline due to a slowdown in import demand and an improvement in export supply. Favorable production forecasts in major Asian countries indicate a potential 2% increase compared to 2023. African demand is decreasing due to high freight costs, at their highest in two months. Meanwhile, market players are waiting for new tenders from Indonesia, which have been delayed. Lower import taxes in the Philippines are raising hopes for new market opportunities for Asian exporters, though over 80% of the rice imported by the Philippines is from Vietnam. In India, exporters are pressing the government to release non-basmati white rice for export. With increased production due to abundant rains, India may face storage issues unless it changes its trade policy. Ending India’s export ban would increase supply during the main harvest period in Asia from September into early 2025, likely leading to further global price decreases in the second half of the year. In June, the OSIRIZ/InfoArroz (IPO) index rose by 2.0 points to 233.1 points (base 100=January 2000) from 331.1 points in May. Early July, the IPO index was trending down to 326 points.