In October, world rice prices dropped by 10%, reaching their lowest levels since June 2023, prior to India’s restrictive export measures. Since India’s return to the market in late September, exporters have faced intense pressure. External sales are slowing, while global import demand is rebounding, especially in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and West Africa, driven by more attractive export offers. India has benefited from this global demand surge due to highly competitive prices following the removal of minimum export prices and export duty exemptions. Additionally, the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the dollar has enhanced the competitiveness of Indian rice. In the Western Hemisphere, price trends have been mixed. The U.S. export market remains active, while demand in Mercosur has declined due to uncompetitive prices. By early November, global prices were showing further weakening, though some stability was evident compared to the high volatility in early October. Global rice exports are expected to increase in the 2024/2025 season, mainly due to improved production in India, up by more than 5% from the previous season. Likewise, global rice consumption is expected to grow by 2% to a record level of 536 Mt, though still 3 Mt below the projected global production in 2025.
In October, the OSIRIZ/InfoArroz Index (IPO) fell significantly by 23.3 points to 248.6 points (base 100=January 2000) from 271.9 points in September. By mid-November, the IPO index had stabilized around 237 points.