In January, world rice prices fell sharply by 7%. This is the sharpest monthly decline since July 2021, when exporters cut their prices in reaction to soaring sea freight costs and abundant export offers. At the beginning of 2025, the world market is also showing abundant export supply, while import demand is weak. Importers are expecting further price declines and look forward to more stable world prices. The import market is expected to recover with the return of the main importers, such as the Philippines and West African countries, but not for several weeks. Meanwhile, Indonesia, whose import demand reached record levels in 2024, import requirements are expected to fall sharply in 2025. On the supply side, Indian exports are expected to pick up sharply, up 30% from 2024, and approaching their historical record of 22 Mt in 2022. Thailand and Vietnam would be the big losers in this reshaping of the export market, with external sales down by 15-20%, after a prosperous year in 2024 thanks to India’s restrictive export measures. In this context, world rice prices are likely to remain low for much of the year, with some periods of price stability or even recoveries, depending on the evolution of import demand. Thus, world trade is expected to grow only slightly by 1.2% in 2025, compared to 10% in 2024.
In January, the OSIRIZ/InterRice Index (IPO) dropped by 15.6 points to 222.3 points (base 100 = January 2000) against 237.9 points in December. In early February, the IPO index fell further to 208 points, the lowest level since November 2021.