The price of rice is projected to decline by 11 percent in 2025/2026 owing to favourable weather conditions and increased production.
Feyishola Jaiyesimi, February 17, 2025
In its 2025 annual commodities review and outlook report, AFEX, a commodity exchange platform, notes that the projection is based on favourable weather conditions, including strong rainfall and expected onset of La Nina which is likely to increase yield in India and across Asia, global rice prices will fall.
“The global rice market is poised for potential price relief in 2025, driven by expectations of strong production and key policy shifts in India,” AFEX wrote in its report.
According to the report, a projected bumper harvest and India’s return to the export market are expected to lead to downward pressure on rice prices in the first quarter of the year.
“Global rice production is expected to rise by 8 percent in 2024 which is anticipated to lead to an 11 percent drop in rice prices in 2025,” according to the report.
“This outlook is supported by favourable weather conditions, including strong rainfall and the expected onset of La Nina,” the report explained.
The report notes that exporters in Asia and the United States are also expected to contribute to a well-supplied global rice market, maintaining downward pressure on prices.
This projection of declining rice prices comes as a relief for Nigerians. The average price of a 50kg bag of rice currently costs about N110,000.
Africa’s most populous nation produced 5.23 million metric tons of rice in the 2024/2025 season down 7 percent from 5.61 million metric tons in the 2023/2024 season, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture.